https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00918-2
"This paper finds that ocean stratification is increasing, meaning less heat is being pulled down that models assume.Thus the heat must be somewhere else, and the only logical explanation is that it is not appearing as extra warming because the temporary aerosols cooling is also greater than models assume. This is not good news, because it means that as fossil fuel use decreases, the loss of aerosol cooling will be greater, and hence the rate of warming may increase. This point has been repeatedly made by Jim Hansen.
One of the paper’s co-authors, Michael Mann has made the points (https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28092020/ocean-stratification-climate-change) that:
'The research suggests that some of the worst-case global warming scenarios outlined in major international climate reports can't be ruled out. If the ocean surface warms faster and less carbon is carried to the depths, those processes along with other climate feedbacks could lead atmospheric CO2 to triple and the global average temperature could increase 8 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.
'The take-home point, here, is that once again we are learning that the uncertainties are not breaking in our favor… If anything, the impacts of climate change are proving to be worse than we predicted.'
All this suggests that the worse-case warming scenarios may come true, and this is precisely what our Climate Reality Check 2020 presentation, with its emphasis of existential risk analysis, takes into account."
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